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REPEAT: Australia Aug 1st Home-Buyer Loans Surge on Incentives

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 00:55 GMT Oct 12/20:55 EST Oct 11
--Investor Loan Value Rebounds from July Decline
     SYDNEY (MNI) - Housing-finance data for August published by the Australian
Bureau of Statistics on Thursday:
                                                  August                    July
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      (M/M %, seasonally      (M/M %, seasonally
                                               adjusted)               adjusted)
Number of Owner-Occupied Dwelling                              +2.8(revised from
Commitments                                         +1.0                   +2.9)
MNI Median Consensus                 +0.4 (-0.5 to +1.0)
-Construction of Dwellings                          -2.4                    +4.0
-Purchase of New Dwellings                          +1.5                    +2.2
-Purchase of Established
Dwellings                                           +1.5                    +2.7
Value of Dwelling Commitments                       +2.1                    -0.6
-Owner occupied housing                             +0.9                    +1.3
-Investment housing                                 +4.3                    -3.7
     FACTORS: The number of loans to first home buyers rose sharply in August,
up 14% m/m, due to a change to first-time home buyer incentives made in July by
the New South Wales and Victorian governments. The increase also pushed up the
ratio of first-time home buyer finance commitments to total mortgages to 17.2%
in August from 16.6% in August.
     Overall, finance commitments for owner-occupier dwellings rose at a slower
pace in August due to a slowing in the rate of loans for purchase of established
and new dwellings as well as a fall in number of loans for construction. In
trend terms, housing finance was up 1.0% m/m in August, the same as July and
higher than the 0.1% pace seen in April this year. 
     In value terms, total loan growth rose strongly in August mainly due to a
4.3% surge in loans for investment housing which rebounded from a 3.7% fall in
July. 
     TAKEAWAY: The data was higher than expected and continues to raise doubt
about whether housing market activity has indeed slowed as much other data show.
While the rise in investment housing loan value is a rebound from the fall in
the previous month, it still raises concern on whether investor activity has
slowed to the extent regulators desire. An update on the regulators' view on the
housing market and overall financial stability will be revealed in the financial
stability review to be published by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Friday.
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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