- PolicyPolicy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: - G10 MarketsG10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts - Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- CommoditiesCommodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
- CreditCredit
Real time insight of credit markets
- Data
- MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
- PolicyPolicy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: - G10 MarketsG10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts - Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- CommoditiesCommodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
- CreditCredit
Real time insight of credit markets
- Data
- MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessREPEAT:China Exports and Imports Below Expectations in July
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 04:16 GMT Aug 8/00:16 EST Aug 8
BEIJING (MNI) - Data released Tuesday by the General Administration of
Customs:
Balance (bln $) Exports Y/Y % Imports Y/Y %
----------------------------------------------------------------
July 46.74 7.2 11.0
MNI Survey Median 46.4 10.8 17.5
Previous 42.77 11.3 17.2
FACTORS:
--China July Seasonally Adj. Exports -1.1% m/m VS +3.7% June
--China July Seasonally Adj. Imports -0.9% m/m VS -1.3% June
--China July Seasonally Adj. Exports +8.7% y/y VS +7.6% June
--CHINA July Seasonally Adj. Imports +11.3% y/y VS +11.8% June
TAKEAWAY: Chinese import and export growth decelerated in July, indicating
worse-than-expected external and domestic demand. The decreases in both were
unexpected.
According to the General Administration of Customs, July export growth
softened to 7.2% year-on-year, the lowest this year since February, when it
decreased 1.3% due to seasonal factors relating to Chinese New Year. It was
also below the MNI median forecast for a 10.8% rise and lower than the 11.3%
gain in June, due mainly to weaker overseas demand.
Export growth to both the United States and European Union slowed, while
exports to Japan accelerated in July.
Exports to the U.S. rose 8.5% year-on-year to $37.34 billion, the lowest
growth rate since February, when they declined 4.2%. It was also significantly
lower than the 19.7% increase in June. Exports to the European Union grew 9.5%
to $32.84 billion, the smallest increase since April.
Exports to Japan increased 6.6% to $11.21, up from a 5.5% gain in June.
The stronger yuan exchange rate against the greenback in July also
contributed to the slowdown of exports. The yuan appreciated 0.75% against the
U.S dollar in July, higher than the 0.61% gain in June.
The overall export deceleration was in line with the official CFLP PMI new
export orders index, which fell 1.1 percentage points to 50.9 last month from
the previous 52.0, the biggest drop in the past five years, according to the
National Bureau of Statistics.
"The big support for exports ... in the first two quarters has started to
weaken in the third quarter, so there would not be a strong economic recovery"
this year, Deng Haiqing, chief economist at Jiuzhou Securities, told MNI.
Imports increased 11.0% year-on-year in July, lower than the MNI median
forecast for a 17.5% gain and also lower than the 17.2% rise in June. It was the
slowest growth rate since last December's 3.1% gain.
The slowdown in import growth was largely due to sluggish domestic demand
for raw materials.
Imports of iron ore declined month-on-month in July, with China importing
86.25 million tons of iron ore, compared with 94.70 million tons in June. Coal
imports fell 9.9% m/m to 19.46 million tons.
The growth of imports was in line with the latest official CFLP
manufacturing PMI index. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the
import sub-index dropped to 51.1 from the previous 51.2.
The import growth rate continued to outpace the export growth rate in July,
the 12th consecutive month it has done so, but absolute exports exceeded
imports, resulting in a $46.7 billion trade surplus. The surplus was higher that
the MNI survey median forecast of $46.4 billion, and also higher than June's
$42.77 billion surplus.
In the first seven months of this year, the trade surplus amounted to
$231.68 billion, below the $307.54 billion surplus in the same period last year,
with exports rising 8.3% y/y and imports up 17.7%.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532 5998; email: marissa.wang@marketnews.com
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: vince.morkri@marketnews.com
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.