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REPEAT: MNI: 5 Things To Look For: US Personal Income Data 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:21 GMT Jan 26/15:21 EST Jan 26
By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The US personal income report will be released Monday,
with the median forecast among analysts in an MNI survey expecting a 0.3% gain
in personal income, a 0.4% rise in current dollar PCE, and a 0.2% increase in
core PCE price index.
     Ahead of the release, we outline five themes for particular attention.
     -- REVISIONS ON THE HORIZON?
     The advance release for 4Q GDP was released Friday and PCE rose 3.8%,
contributing 2.58pp to 4Q GDP vs 1.49pp in 3Q. The PCE price index saw a 2.8%
rise vs 1.5% in the previous quarter, while core PCE price index rose 1.9% vs
1.3%. Some analysts note that December's release should hold little surprise, as
they deduce it from the 4Q GDP report and the prior two months' personal income
reports. However, December PCE could hold some uncertainty due to the recent
history of revisions in December for past months. The PCE price index m/m was
revised up in the past two Novembers. This indicates December forecasts could
face a small downside risk. 
     -- ANOTHER BOOST FROM MOTOR VEHICLES 
     In November, vehicle sales were one of the largest contributors to the
$22.3 billion in spending on goods. The December retail sales report, which
feeds into the personal income report, showed that motor vehicle and parts
increased by 0.2%, suggesting that motor vehicle sales will again provide a
boost to goods consumption. 
     -- ENERGY COULD DRAG
     While last month, energy jumped 4.3% and provided a considerable boost to
PCE's 0.2% rise, it is unlikely to give any lift in December. Given the strong
correlation between SA monthly percent changes of CPI energy and PCE energy, and
December CPI energy posting a 1.2% decline, PCE energy may likely come in
negative as well. It is worth noting that many analysts expect utilities to jump
on cold December weather as suggested by the CPI data, but this will likely be
offset by the decline in gas prices seen in both the CPI and retail sales
report.
     -- CONCERNS OF LOW SAVINGS RATE 
     After reaching its lowest level since 2007, the savings rate will likely
continue its downward trend. There has been a recent negative relationship
between average hourly earnings and personal savings, highlighting a potentially
disproportionate rate of spending to income growth. In this light, December's
0.3% gain in hourly earnings suggests that the savings rate could continue to
slip to new lows. This, in conjunction with the widening gap between the savings
rate and revolving credit to pre-recession levels, may worry policymakers about
unsustainable spending relative to income growth. 
     -- ON TARGET FED PROJECTION 
     The Federal Reserve's economic projections released on a quarterly basis
includes their preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE Index Y/Y. In 2015
and 2016, core PCE began to rise and the Fed expected the trend to continue into
2017, prompting a shift in March, setting core PCE expectations for 2017 to
reach 1.9%. As time progressed, the Fed recognized that inflation was not rising
as quickly as it had the year prior. This led them to announce a series of
lowered expectations for 2017. With the core PCE m/m expected to rise 0.2%, this
will keep the Y/Y at 1.5% for December, making the Y/Y match the Fed's most
recent projection for the 2017 year, barring no revision to the personal income
data in the coming months. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
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