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REPEAT: MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Job Ads Up But Trend Declines

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 01:30 GMT Aug 6/21:30 EST Aug 5
By Sophia Rodrigues
     SYDNEY (MNI) - Job advertisements in Australia rose in July, almost
entirely recovering from the fall in June but trend dropped into negative for
the first time in four years, raising some warning signs about the outlook for
the labor market.
     Data published by ANZ Monday showed job ads rose 1.5% m/m in July,
following a 1.7% fall in June. In y/y terms, the pace improved to 7.3% in July
compared with 6.9% in June.
     In trend terms, however, job ads fell 0.2% m/m in July to mark the first
fall since August 2014. The +7.0% y/y trend growth was the slowest since
December 2016.
     ANZ's head of Australian economics David Plank said the softening in
monthly trend contrasts with other labor market indicators such as business
conditions, capacity utilization and profitability, but he will be watching the
job ads closely for any further weakness.
     "We will be closely watching the Job ads ... as further weakness in the
series may challenge our view. This in turn would have implications for wage
growth, consumption and the return of inflation to the target band," Plank said.
     The outlook for the labor market is extremely important for the Reserve
Bank of Australia's monetary policy because Governor Philip Lowe has indicated
that as long as the labor market is improving, he wouldn't worry too much about
low inflation.
     In the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy due Friday, the RBA is likely
to stick to an upbeat view on the labor market based on several indicators,
including an increased emphasis on job vacancies which recently rose to an
historical high.
     From the ANZ job advertisement survey for July:
                              July                 June
-------------------------------------------------------
Job Ads (SA*, Change M/M)     +1.5  -1.7% (no revision)
Job Ads (SA*, Change Y/Y)    +7.3%                +6.9%
Job Ads (Trend, Change M/M)  -0.2%  +0.1% (no revision)
Job Ads (Trend, Change Y/Y)  +7.0%                +8.2%
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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