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REPEAT:MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Q3 CPI Benign, Ex-Hsg +0.2% Q/Q

By Sophia Rodrigues
     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's consumer price index accelerated in the third
quarter but the year-on-year rise slowed and remained below the Reserve Bank of
Australia's target band for the second straight quarter.
     The underlying CPI accelerated slightly on a y/y basis, but once again
remained below the RBA's target band. The outcome of 1.85% y/y was slightly
higher than 1.8% in Q2. Underlying CPI q/q was very benign at +0.35% q/q.
     The outcome fell short of MNI median forecast and points to the RBA's
monetary policy staying on hold for longer, with some risk to the downside. The
outcome on headline CPI would particularly worry the RBA because it shows there
was hardly any inflationary pressure in the economy if one removes the effect of
the sharp rise in utilities prices.
     Indeed, CPI excluding the housing category, which includes utilities, rose
just 0.2% q/q. On a y/y basis it rose 1.3%, slowing sharply from +1.8% in Q2.
     The Q3 data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Wednesday
showed headline CPI rose 0.6% q/q -- below a MNI median forecast 0.8% q/q gain
-- taking y/y CPI to +1.8%, below the MNI median of +2.0%. 
     The rise was mainly driven by a 6.8% q/q rise in utilities prices, with
water rising 3.2%, electricity up 8.9% and gas prices rising 5.2%. These
increases drove the housing group up 1.9% q/q and 3.3% y/y. 
     Tobacco made another significant contribution with a 4.1% q/q rise and
international holiday travel and accommodation rose 4.1%.
     The main drag came from a 0.9% q/q fall in food prices, as vegetable prices
plunged 10.9% due to sharp rise in supplies. Automotive fuel prices fell 2.3%
and telecommunication equipment and services dropped 1.5%.
     The Q3 CPI is usually driven higher by seasonal factors and on a seasonally
adjusted basis, CPI rose just 0.4% q/q though y/y CPI was the unchanged at 1.8%.

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