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REPEAT:MNI INSIGHT: BOJ To Allow Slight Yield Curve Steepening

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:16 GMT Jul 25/07:16 EST Jul 25
--BOJ Sees Higher Super-Long Bond Yields To Have Favorable Effects
--BOJ May Consider Dropping Release of JGB Buying Operation Dates
By Hiroshi Inoue
     TOKYO (MNI) - At its July 30-31 policy meeting, the Bank of Japan board
will consider allowing the nearly flat Japanese government bond yield to steepen
slightly, recovering some functions of the tepid JGB market while keeping the
stimulative effects of large-scale monetary easing, MNI understands. 
     This means the BOJ will let the yields on super long-term JGBs with
maturities of 20-, 30- and 40-years fluctuate based on market participants'
growth and inflation outlook by gradually reducing the scale of its purchase of
those bonds.
     At the same time, the BOJ is likely to leave its official target unchanged
-- stabilizing the 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for long-term
borrowing costs, at "around zero percent" and the overnight interest rate at
-0.1%.
     But it is uncertain whether the board will also consider tolerating a wider
"unofficial" range of fluctuations in the 10-year JGB yield.
     The BOJ does not publish its internal market operation target but it is
believed to be allowing the 10-year JGB yield to move between -0.1% and +0.1%.
     If the 10-year yield is about to rise sharply along with wider fluctuations
in super-long bonds, the bank will use its usual tool -- offering to buy an
unlimited amount of 10-year JGBs at a fixed rate.
     It is uncertain whether it will continue to draw a line in the sand,
defending the 0.1% mark for the zone, when the super-long bond yield rises
gradually in step with expectations for firmer economic growth and higher
inflation toward the bank's 2% target.
     But at this point, when the annual inflation rate measured by the core CPI
(excluding fresh food) is below 1%, the BOJ is likely to demonstrate its will to
keep interest rates low.
     --TO INCREASE VOLATILITY
     In order to increase the flexibility of the flat yield curve, the BOJ may
consider dropping the monthly release of the dates on which it plans to conduct
the purchases of Japanese government bonds.
     By doing so, the bond market may regain some volatility, BOJ officials
believe.
     The BOJ is likely to say that from now on, it will conduct its bond buying
operations "flexibly," taking interest rates and the functioning of the markets
into consideration.
     Some BOJ board members are concerned over the adverse impact of continued
zero to negative interest rates on profit margins for lenders and investment
returns for pension funds and life insurers.
     --FAVORABLE EFFECTS
     BOJ board members have been saying it will take time before the bank can
achieve its 2% inflation target, and that they must watch both the costs and
benefits of large-scale stimulus.
     BOJ officials believe higher yields on super long-term bonds will not have
a serious negative impact on economic activity, and that they should help banks,
life insurers and pension funds.
     JGB yields have stayed at low levels and the volatility in the bond market
has fallen significantly in light of the BOJ's massive purchases of JGBs.
     BOJ officials think they must keep short-term interest rates at low levels
to achieve the 2% inflation target, but they also think that it is appropriate
for the yields on super long-term bonds to move flexibly based on market views
on growth and inflation.
     The BOJ has said short-term interest rates are the most important ones for
the economy and commercial lending rates.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com

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