REPEAT: POV: SNB'S HANDS TIED BY ECB - The......>

SNB: REPEAT: POV: SNB'S HANDS TIED BY ECB

- The SNB are widely expected to keep policy unchanged on Thursday, meaning

focus will be on the biannual press conf. and quarterly report. The ECB's

calendar guidance launched last week has effectively determined both ECB and SNB

policy & domestic data leaves the SNB ample room to keep policy unchanged for

the 14th consecutive meeting. While some believe Swiss rates may move ahead of

the ECB to create breathing room, such a move wouldn't take place until Summer

next year. Hawkish risk: Ignoring the revival of CHF's safe haven status amid

trade protectionism and EZ econ deceleration could prove negative for EUR/CHF.

Neutral: A copy-paste of the March release would keep EUR/CHF within recent

range. Most analysts expect this outcome. Dovish risk: While markets expect a

reiteration of "willingness to intervene in FX as necessary", a step-up in

language to combat risks surrounding trade tariffs, political instability

(particularly in Italy) and geopolitical tensions could spook CHF longs and see

EUR/CHF re-test the 1.1667 200-dma and eliminate the 1.5% drop since the last

meeting.