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REPEAT: US DATA PREVIEW: The median estimate for.....>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: REPEAT: The median estimate for nonfarm payrolls stands at
+315k, with 2/3 of analysts expecting above +300k and 1/3 expecting a gain in
the 200ks. If analysts are correct at +315k and there are no revisions to prev
months, Sept and Oct avg would be +141k, lower than the Sept/Oct avg for the
past 6 years. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at the 16-year low of
4.2%. Analysts expect avg hourly earnings to retreat to +0.2% after the
hurricane-driven +0.5% in Sept. Avg work week is expected to be unchanged at
34.4. With such a large range, payrolls are certain to surprise some market
participants, but will likely be discounted due to transitory underlying causes.
However, analysts remain focused on avg hourly earnings as continued strength
could help push through a Dec rate hike, while weakness would be positive for
fixed income and negative for the dollar.

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