'Republican Front' Holds In Regional Election As Turnout Plummets

The second round of France's regional elections, held on Sunday 27 June, delivered poor results for both President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Republique En Marche (REM) and the right-wing nationalist National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen amidst widespread voter apathy. The election was billed as a good bellwether for next year's presidential vote, but given the low turnout it is unlikely to offer much significant indication of the presidential prospects for any candidate.

• Of France's 12 metropolitan regions (mainland France) all were held by the incumbent regional president, hailing from either the centre-left or centre-right of the political spectrum.
• In its key target region of Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur in the far south-east, the RN failed to take the regional presidency from incumbent President Renaud Muselier from the centre-right Gaullist Les Republicains (LR).
• In Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur, as in all other regions where the RN had made the second round and were seen as posing a threat to the incumbent moderate regional leader, the party came up against a 'Republican Front', where parties of the centre, centre-left, and centre-right withdrew their candidates from the second round if their running could allow the RN candidate come in first place.
• While France's historically dominant parties - the LR and the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) - will look at the results with some satisfaction after years in the political wilderness, the bigger story of the election is the seeming widespread apathy of the French electorate.
• Compared to a second round turnout of 58.4% in 2015 (the last time regional elections were held), the second round turnout this time around is estimated to stand at just over 30%. While some of the decline can likely be put down to some reluctance to go to polling stations amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, it is also evidence of widespread voter apathy.
• Polls (and this election) shows that no moderate parties are lighting a fire under the electorate, while the RN is seen as too extremist to be a viable alternative or is not seen as an insurgent anti-establishment party any more after nearly 20 years in the political spotlight.