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Resilient Fed Hike Expectations

STIR FUTURES
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied hikes have been reasonably resilient to today’s souring in risk sentiment as equities and oil slide.
  • After a late increase they show 53.5bp for Jun, 105bp for Jul, 146bp for Sep and 199bp for Dec meetings, close to where they started the US session and so still near post-FOMC highs.
  • It’s been helped by long-term inflation expectations grinding higher with the 5Y5Y breakeven at 2.35%, which is still comfortably off recent cycle highs (~2.65% Apr 22) but doesn’t give the Fed any let up.
  • Data have been largely neutral, with housing starts broadly as expected after negative revisions and mortgage applications resuming their decline after two weeks of surprising increases in the face of soaring mortgage rates. Philly Fed mfg survey of note tomorrow after Empire surprisingly slumped on Monday.
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