Resistance Holds In XM, RBA Speculation Does the Rounds

YM unch., XM +1.5 in Sydney. XM is back from best levels after running out of steam just ahead of the previously flagged resistance in the form of the May 27 high (98.430), peaking at 98.425 after shorts were squeezed in early Sydney dealing.

• Elsewhere, domestic data was solid to firm, but had no real impact on the space.
• There has been plenty of speculation doing the rounds after an appearance from RBA Governor Lowe was added to the docket for 6 July, the day of the Bank's key July decision (the addition came late on Wednesday). The title of the address is "Today's Monetary Policy Decision" and it will come 90 minutes after the decision & accompanying statement are released. It has become common practice for Lowe to conduct such addresses in the wake of key monetary policy decisions, and many have suggested that he could use the address to temper any hawkish reaction in the wake of the decisions surrounding QE & the Bank's yield targeting scheme. Still, this didn't impact the market.
• A portion of today's AOFM Note tender was allotted at negative yields. This isn't a new concept, with excess liquidity in the domestic banking system pressuring yields and x-ccy basis still providing attractive comparative entry points for offshore participants.
• Housing finance data headlines the local docket on Friday, with the release of the AOFM's weekly issuance slate & A$1.0bn of ACGB 0.25% 21 November 2025 supply also due.