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Resurfacing COVID Troubles Exacerbate Yuan Woes

CNH

Worrying COVID-19 news have sapped strength from offshore yuan, sending spot USD/CNH to its strongest levels since May 27, despite a firmer than expected PBOC fixing.

  • Shanghai and Beijing reimposed some restrictions as COVID-19 numbers in both cities climbed, providing evidence of continued struggle to stamp out the virus. Beijing delayed the re-opening of most schools and admitted that an outbreak linked to a popular bar proves more difficult to control than previous clusters. Shanghai suspended dine-in services in most districts and punished several officials for missteps in the implementation of quarantine policies.
  • The PBOC set the yuan reference rate at a stronger than expected level for the third consecutive day. The mid-point of permitted USD/CNY trading band was set at CNY6.7182, 25 pips shy of the sell-side estimate. This comes on the heels of a 23-pip miss last Friday and a 21-pip miss on Thursday.
  • The move higher in spot USD/CNH has been facilitated by regional reaction to firmer than forecast CPI data released out of the U.S. after Asia hours Friday, which inspired some hawkish Fed repricing.
  • Spot USD/CNH trades at CNH6.7620, up ~320 pips on the day, with bulls looking to challenge May 27 high of CNH6.7856. A breach of that key resistance level would bode well for the bullish case, clearing the way to May 13 cycle high of CNH6.8380. Bears look for a pullback towards Jun 3/May 4 lows of CNH6.6170/6.6118.
  • Looking ahead, China's monthly economic activity indicators will hit the wires on Wednesday.

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