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Retail Sales – 0830ET

CANADA
  • Whilst unlikely to change broad expectations of a 25bp hike from the BoC next week, retail sales for Nov (plus Dec advance) offer another test of the BoC’s forecast that the economy stalled in late 2022 and will do so in 1H23.
  • As per last month’s advance, consensus sees a -0.5% M/M decline (possibly similar in volumes) after the +1.4% M/M of Oct, whilst CIBC expect another drop in the Dec advance.
  • Ahead of the data, GoCs continue to pare gains from earlier in the week (+2 to 5.5bps on the day), with front yields almost clawing back Wednesday’s weak US data-induced rally at 3.53%, whilst USDCAD sits little changed on the day at 1.3465.

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