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Retail Sales (And Mfg Sales Flash) Ahead At 0830ET

CANADA
  • Consensus sees retail sales at -0.1% M/M in March, marginally weaker than the 0% from last month’s advance estimate.
  • RBC cardholder data are in line with the 0% but CIBC look for -0.2%, primarily reflecting a pullback in auto sales.
  • Ex auto sales meanwhile are seen rising 0.3% M/M, which CIBC agrees with but sees little change in real terms with higher gasoline prices on the month.
  • Volumes should therefore be watched closely, especially after the -0.3% M/M in Feb took the gloss of a strong turn of the year with +0.5% in Jan and +0.6% in Dec.
  • We haven’t seen any estimates for the nominal April advance, and note that the manufacturing sales flash estimate for April will also be released at 0830ET.
  • Yesterday saw CAD rates unusually reluctant to sell-off with their US counterparts on the strong PMI (still around 16bp of cuts for Jun 5 BoC, Can-US 2Y yield differentials historically low at -72.5bps).
  • That could open scope for an outsized impact on a strong report here, whilst a soft report will further dial up focus on next Friday’s GDP Q1 release in the last main release before the BoC the following week.
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