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Retail Sales Bounce In October Offsets An Otherwise Soft Report

CANADA
  • Retail sales were as expected in September as they fell -0.5% M/M but with a solid bounce of 1.5% M/M in the October advance that made up for a downward revision to Aug.
  • Volumes in September were again subdued (-0.1% M/M) as they continued to make little grounds in recovery from a 2% hit in July, and would have been notably weaker without a 4.2% M/M increase in gasoline sales volumes.
  • Even with that gasoline boost, retail sales volumes were down -5% annualized in Q3, not boding well for consumption ahead of next week’s Q3 GDP release.
  • The advance bounce in nominal sales in the Oct advance helped offset otherwise negative implications, which combined with a high bar for negative surprises with the BoC already expecting little growth in Q4-1H23 left USDCAD little changed around 1.34.

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