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Retail sales data due at 7:00BST

  • Sales are expected to moderate after being boosted in July by online discounting (i.e. likely a very successful Prime Day). The extent of the fall will be monitored in the light of continued decreasing consumer confidence data (although the energy support scheme may well see at least some bottoming out in consumer confidence prints).
  • Consensus looks for a -0.5%M/M fall in the including fuel figure and a -0.7%M/M fall in the excluding fuel figure.
  • Unless we get a large surprise the retail sales print is unlikely to sway the opinion of any MPC member over their decision next week - with the inflation, inflation expectations and labour market data all received earlier this week more important to the near-term monetary policy outlook. Markets price 65bp for next week, 196bp by year-end and a terminal rate 283bp higher by June 2023.

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