Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
February retail sales rose 0.2% m/m after +1.8% the previous month, exactly on expectations. The series is nominal and so the moderate increase implies that sales volumes contracted moderately. Following the March RBA meeting, Governor Lowe said that the Board would be looking at the “collective” signal from inflation, employment, retail and business confidence data. The NAB business survey and the labour market data for February both point to another 25bp hike on April 4 and retail sales were probably neutral. The CPI on Wednesday will round out the 4 key pieces of data.
- Retail sales in February were 6.4% higher than a year ago (Jan 7.5%) and appear to have stabilised around the September 2022 level after year-end volatility. They are showing weak 3-month momentum though at -5.9% annualised.
- All components rose, except other retailing, with department stores posting the strongest result at +1% m/m and 7.7% y/y followed by clothing & footwear +0.6% and 6.2%, and restaurants & takeaways +0.5% and 17.1%.
- The ABS noted that consumers continue to “pull back on discretionary spending in response to high cost of living pressures”. Household goods retailing was flat.
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Australia retail sales vs CBA spending intentions y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.