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Retail Sales, Economic Activity Data Due This Week

BRAZIL
  • Despite USDBRL trading to a fresh trend high again last week above 5.4000, higher equities prompted a relief rally for the Brazilian real which saw the pair trade back to 5.25 at Friday’s close.
    • Conditions remain bullish, however, and this is also supported by a positive set-up in moving average studies. The focus is on 5.4795 next, 76.4% of the Dec ‘21 - Apr downleg.
  • May Retail Sales data is due Wednesday, before May economic activity is published on Thursday.
  • Central bank director Diogo Guillen attends public event hosted by Credit Suisse today at 10am local.
  • Latest BCB Focus Survey just released:
    • Brazil economists forecast 7.67% 2022 inflation; prior 7.96%
    • Brazil economists forecast 5.09% 2023 inflation; prior 5.01%
    • Brazil economists forecast 1.59% 2022 GDP; prior 1.51%
    • Brazil economists forecast 0.5% 2023 GDP; prior 0.5%
    • Brazil economists see 13.75% 2022 year-end selic; prior 13.75%
    • Brazil economists see 10.5% 2023 year-end selic; prior 10.5%
    • Brazil economists see real at 5.13/USD by end-2022; prior 5.09 (All BBG)
  • Former World Trade Organization head Roberto Azevedo has emerged as a potential cabinet member for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in case the leftist former president wins Brazil’s October election, according to four people with knowledge of the matter. (Bloomberg)
    • Azevedo, currently executive vice president for corporate affairs at PepsiCo Inc, is seen by Lula’s campaign members as a skilful and experienced negotiator who could lead several key ministries, including Finance, Trade and Industry, or Foreign Relations, the people said, requesting anonymity because the discussion isn’t public.
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