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Retail Sales Food Products Continue To Drive Inflationary Pressures

ITALY DATA

Italian October retail sales ended two months of negative SA monthly prints to rise +0.4% M/M (vs -0.1% cons; -0.3% prior) in nominal value terms. Despite this, retail sales continue to display stagflationary undertones, which may be feeding through to industrial production figures in the case of durable goods.

  • Food products saw a larger monthly improvement than non-food counterparts, but continue to contribute most to inflationary pressures (shown by the difference in the value vs volume indices). This trend has been corroborated in recent CPI data.
  • On an annual basis, sales rose +0.3% Y/Y in value terms (vs +1.2% Y/Y prior). Food products saw a +3.5% Y/Y rise (vs +5.3% prior) while non-food products fell -2.0% Y/Y (vs -2.0% prior).
  • Within the non-food products basket, the largest Y/Y downside was seen in electric household appliances, audio-video equipment (-5.3%) and clothing (-5.0%), while cosmetic and toilet articles sales rose +3.1% Y/Y.
  • Industrial production data for October was also released today, coming in at -1.1% Y/Y (vs -2.0% prior, WDA) and -0.2% M/M (vs 0.1% prior, SA). Consumer and intermediate goods showed negative Y/Y prints for the 9th consecutive month each, while capital and energy goods had positive annual rates.

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Italian October retail sales ended two months of negative SA monthly prints to rise +0.4% M/M (vs -0.1% cons; -0.3% prior) in nominal value terms. Despite this, retail sales continue to display stagflationary undertones, which may be feeding through to industrial production figures in the case of durable goods.

  • Food products saw a larger monthly improvement than non-food counterparts, but continue to contribute most to inflationary pressures (shown by the difference in the value vs volume indices). This trend has been corroborated in recent CPI data.
  • On an annual basis, sales rose +0.3% Y/Y in value terms (vs +1.2% Y/Y prior). Food products saw a +3.5% Y/Y rise (vs +5.3% prior) while non-food products fell -2.0% Y/Y (vs -2.0% prior).
  • Within the non-food products basket, the largest Y/Y downside was seen in electric household appliances, audio-video equipment (-5.3%) and clothing (-5.0%), while cosmetic and toilet articles sales rose +3.1% Y/Y.
  • Industrial production data for October was also released today, coming in at -1.1% Y/Y (vs -2.0% prior, WDA) and -0.2% M/M (vs 0.1% prior, SA). Consumer and intermediate goods showed negative Y/Y prints for the 9th consecutive month each, while capital and energy goods had positive annual rates.