Retail Sales (Jul 2020) Preview - 0700BST

BBG : 2.0%m/m; +0.1%y/y; Prev (Jun): 13.9%m/m, -1.6%y/y

Ex. Fuel: BBG: +0.2% m/m, +1.5% y/y; Prev (Jun): 13.5% m/m, +1.7% y/y

• Retail sales are forecast to show further strength in Jul with markets looking for an increase of 2.0% for m/m sales following Jun's sharp 13.9% increase.
• Y/Y sales are projected to post a small increase in Jul with markets pencilling in an uptick to 0.1% after a 1.6% drop in Jun.
• Ex fuel, m/m sales are seen higher at 0.2%, while y/y sales are anticipated to rise by 1.5%.
• The ONS noted that May's and Jun's increases in the volume of sales brought total sales back to a similar level seen before the crisis.
• Despite the sharp upticks in sales of non-food stores and fuel, total sales for this store type have not yet recovered to pre-covid levels.
• On the other hand, food stores and non-store retailing reached levels higher than Feb.
• The outlook of sales remains dependent on the development of the pandemic