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Retail Sales Maintain Recent Strong Nominal Consumption Trend

US DATA
  • Total retail sales were overall roughly in line in February, down -0.4% M/M as expected after a small upward revision to a still very strong 3.2% M/M.
  • Within the details though, the control group, which better feeds through to consumption in GDP, was stronger than expected as it increased 0.5% M/M (cons -0.3%) after an upward revised 2.3% (initially 1.7%), i.e. less payback than expected after what was widely thought to have been a January benefiting from unusually mild weather.
  • Trend growth rates for the nominal series are very strong, with a three-month average of 10% annualized implying a further acceleration from January’s 6% annualized run rate for personal consumption (although that was only consistent with 2% real consumption growth).

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