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Retail Sales Promotes Receiver-Side BoE STIR Flow

STIR

Much weaker-than-expected domestic retail sales data (see previous bullets for further details on that front) generally supports SONIA futures, leaving contracts running 0.5 lower to 4.0bp higher through the blues.

  • BoE-dated OIS moves in sync, with ~114bp of cuts now priced through ’24 (vs. ~109bp at yesterday’s close).
  • Outside of the data, political posturing continues to dominate domestic news flow.
  • The local economic docket is now essentially empty into the weekend.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-245.200+1.2
Mar-245.161-2.7
May-245.034-15.4
Jun-244.850-33.8
Aug-244.615-57.3
Sep-244.417-77.1
Nov-244.206-98.2
Dec-244.051-113.7
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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