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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
Retail sales bounced in May from a poor April, but by less than expected, exacerbated by downward revisions to data in the two prior months.
- Overall retail sales grew by just 0.1% M/M, vs 0.3% expected, with April's outturn revised down to -0.2% (vs 0.0% prelim) and March's to 0.5% (from 0.6%). Ex-Auto/Gas sales disappointed to an even greater degree, rising by just 0.1% M/M, vs 0.4% expected (and April's likewise was revised down 0.2pp, to -0.3%, with March's to 0.6% from 0.7%)).
- Most notably there was a miss for the key Control Group (GDP input) category at +0.4% (vs +0.5% expected), exacerbated by downward revisions to the prior two months (-0.3% to -0.5% for April, +1.0% to +0.9% for March).
- Growth across the biggest retail sales categories of motor vehicles, non-store retailers was around 0.8% apiece, with food services/drinking places (-0.4%), food and beverage (-0.2%), building material (-0.8%) and general merchandise (+0.1%) flat-to-negative. See the chart below.
- As the revisions imply, these figures are volatile and subject to reassessment in the months ahead, but control group retail sales in May remained a little under the March level, with ex-auto/gas struggling to move above December 2023 levels.
- Overall retail sales in May were up 2.3% Y/Y, with the control group up 3.1%, compared to overall CPI up 3.3%.
- The softer-than-expected control group reading could marginally downwardly impact the pre-release view for the Q2 GDP reading, but overall it's stabilizing on a 3M/3M annualized rate basis (1.9% vs 1.2% in Apr, 1.3% Mar) at a very low level.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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