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Retail Sales Show Signs Of Returning To Pre-Covid Trend

NORWAY

Norway SA retail sales for October rose +0.6% M/M (vs. -0.3% prior). The three economists that formed the bbg consensus had expected a -0.2% M/M print. Today's data provides further evidence that the retail sales index is re-aligning with pre-covid trends, as the process of rebalancing the economy back to services persists and we continue to move away from the pandemic-induced increase in goods consumption.

  • In Y/Y terms, the index fell -1.4% Y/Y (vs -2.4% prior), an uptick consistent with the goods consumption data in the Q3 GDP release last week. The 3-month index fell -0.8% in the three months from Aug - Oct 2023 (vs +0.6% May - Jul 2023).
  • Also released today was Statistics Norway's Index of Household Consumption of Goods, which rose +2.3% M/M in October (vs +0.3% prior). However, this was heavily influenced by a +21.2% M/M rise in electricity/heating fuels consumption, a function of higher electricity prices in October.
  • NOK did not react meaningfully to the release, but remains at the top of the G10 to start the week following a positive session in Asia.

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