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CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • We gave caution on VFC last Wednesday saying cash credit was heading in tight. It's since had back-to-back sessions of double digit widening but our caution remains ahead of tomorrow night. On RV it looks worse here - Coty's bullet-like 27s now trade above the VF curve - that rotation screens value.
  • We also see some value in the Dufry 27s - EMEA is its largest segment (51% of sales) but most of that is from heavy Europe exposure. We only see Jordan (3 locations) in the levant region.
  • Unclear if Samsonite 26s are trading but also looks cheap (well through BVAL offer side). Reminder co has trimmed it's BS leverage into the net 1-handle and there is 1.3pt upside on mids to the par call which it can exercise now. IG ratings may be in play soon.
  • Fnac paying for not showing a turnaround yet at 3.5% over bunds - we remain cautious. Birkenstock 29s pricing to the 26 call will look cheap for those happy to take current fundamentals noting co is still targeting debt paydowns (i.e. price the early call risk). Our only concern with it is the single brand (& few model) exposure.

  • new Fnac 29s +32
  • Birkenstock 29s +30
  • new Coty 27s +30
  • new Ceconomy 29s +25
  • Dufry/Avolta +20-30
  • Samsonite 26s +20
  • VFC +5-20* Whirlpool +4-12
  • Electrolux +5-10
  • Pandora +5-7
  • PVH unch to +6
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