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Richer After Lower Than Expected CPI Monthly

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs spike as much 5-8bp higher to be down only slightly on the day (YM -2.0 & XM -2.5) after CPI Monthly data for February surprises on the downside with a 6.8% Y/Y print. BBG consensus was expecting 7.2% after 7.4% in January and 8.4% in December. It is important to note however that the series can be volatile from month to month given not all components are updated. The full picture of inflation dynamics will not be available until Q1 CPI on 26 April.

  • Cash ACGBs are +1-2bp with the AU/US 10-year yield differential -4bp at -24bp.
  • Swaps rates are flat to 1bp lower with EFPs 2bp tighter.
  • Bills pricing is -2 to -4 with strip steeper
  • RBA dated OIS is 3-5bp softer for meetings beyond April after the data.
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