Free Trial

Richer Ahead of RBA Policy Decision Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are richer (YM +2.0 & XM +3.5) after cash US tsys finished 6-11bp stronger across the curve in NY trade ahead of the weekend following some hopeful signs that services sector inflation was receding.

  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +2bp at -12bp.
  • Swap rates opened 2-3bp lower with EFPs little changed.
  • The bills strip has twist flattened with pricing -3 to +2.
  • The RBA is expected to remain on hold at its policy decision meeting on Tuesday, taking advantage of the Q1 core CPI undershoot to assess the impact of the 350bp of tightening that has been delivered.
  • RBA dated OIS opened 1bp softer to 4bp firmer across meetings with a 12% chance of a 25bp hike priced for tomorrow’s meeting.
  • CoreLogic House Price has shown further signs of stabilisation In April by printing +0.7% M/M after +0.8% in March.
  • The local calendar sees the release of April’s Judo Bank Mfg PMI, MI Inflation Gauge and ANZ Job Ads.
  • Elsewhere, China’s Official Manufacturing PMI, released on Sunday, declined to 49.2 from 51.9 in March. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also fell to 56.4 from 58.2.
  • The global calendar sees US ISM Manufacturing PMI slated for release today ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy decision. The ECB is scheduled to deliver its policy decision on Thursday.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.