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Richer, Borrowing Estimates To Kick Start A Heavy Week

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade 2-3.5bp richer, building through the overnight session but seemingly buoyed primarily by dovish ECB speak and increased geopolitical tensions with US troop deaths in Jordan over the weekend.
  • TYH4 at 111-13 is off today’s high of 111-15+ but remains within yesterday’s range, on solid volumes of 310k. It sits close to resistance at 111-18 (20-day EMA) but the bear cycle is seen as remaining in play, with support at 110-26 (Jan 19 low).
  • Treasury’s borrowing estimates at 1500ET headline today’s light session, coming ahead of Wednesday’s full refunding announcement. Otherwise, Dallas Fed manufacturing index rounds out the regional Fed mfg surveys for January.
  • Data: Dallas Fed Mfg Jan (1030ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $79B 13W, $70B 26 Bill auctions (1130ET)
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