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Richer But Have Pared Early Gains, Tracking US Tsys

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +7.0) are stronger but have pared early gains sparked by weaker-than-expected EU & US PMIs. With the domestic data docket empty today, local participants have likely eyed headlines and US tsys.

  • US tsys have been pressured in recent dealing, the move comes alongside a move off session lows in the USD. US tsys sit flat to 2bp cheaper across the major benchmarks, with the curve flatter.
  • Cash ACGBs are 5-7bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +2bp at -8bp.
  • Swap rates are 4-5bp lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter and EFPs wider.
  • The bills strip has bull flattened, with pricing flat to +5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bp softer for meetings beyond December, with May'24 leading.
  • Tomorrow the local calendar is empty.
  • July retail sales print on Monday, August 28. They fell 0.8% m/m in June to be up 2.3% y/y. Since that release, CBA has published its revamped household spending series. See MNI CBA Spending Insights Shows Continued Soft Consumption for more details. In July the HSI was flat on the month to be up 1.3% y/y. A flat reading for July retail sales would result in annual growth easing further to 1.6%.

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