AUSSIE BONDS: Richer But Way Off Bests, Focus Turns To US Labour Market Data

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.5) are richer but well off the Sydney session’s best levels.

• Outside of the previously outlined household spending and trade balance data, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
• Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s data-induced rally. The US calendar today will see Challenger Job Cuts, Trade Balance and Jobless Claims data. Fed's Barkin will also speak on the economic outlook.
• Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +5bps.
• Swap rates are 2-3bps lower.
• The bills strip has twist-flattened, with pricing -1 to +3.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer across 2025 meetings. A 25bp rate cut is still not fully priced until May. Notably, market expectations for the May meeting have softened by around 25bps over the past two weeks.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Foreign Reserves data alongside AOFM’s planned sale of A$800mn of the 3.75% 21 April 2037 bond.