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Richer With Debt Deal Eyed, Heavy Data Docket Including PCE

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys outperform core European FI this morning with a bull steepening led by 2YY currently down 5bps but only chipping away at yesterday’s sizeable sell-off. Politics and debt ceiling headlines will no doubt continue to have an impact as the two sides move closer to an agreement ahead of the Memorial Day long weekend but data otherwise headlines.
  • Highlights include PCE, durable goods and the final U.Mich survey after the surprising jump in the 5-10Y measure to its highest since 2011 in the preliminary report, before Mester (’24 voter) speaks and then the early cash close at 1300ET potentially providing some volatility (Globex at 1600ET).
  • 2YY -4.8bp at 4.485%, 5YY -3.7bp at 3.876%, 10YY -3.5bp at 3.783% and 30YY -2.2bp at 3.973%.
  • TYM3 trades 5 ticks higher at 112-25 off a high of 112-27 but firmly within yesterday’s range to the upside, with subdued volumes of 205k ahead of a heavy data docket. Resistance is seen at 113-25 (May 24 high).
  • Data: Monthly PCE report Apr (0830ET), Durable goods orders Apr prelim (0830ET), Adv Goods trade bal Apr (0830ET), Retail/Wholesale inventories Apr/Apr prelim (0830ET), U.Mich consumer survey May final (1000ET), Kansas Fed service index May (1100ET).
  • Fedspeak: Mester (’24 voter) speaks on CNBC at 1100ET
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