Right Win Parliamentary Elections, Majority Looks Unlikely

The first round of voting for France’s National Assembly has produced results broadly in line with surveys, according to exit polls. Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally (RN) won with 33.5% of the vote, less than expected, but as there will be a second round of voting on July 7, it remains unclear if her party will win a majority of seats. President Macron has significant flexibility in who he chooses as the next prime minister, especially if RN doesn’t have a majority.

• The group of left-wing parties called the New Popular Front (NFP) ran second with 28.1% of the vote, while Macron’s centrist Ensemble received only 20.7%, but still higher than in recent European elections. The Republicans were fourth with 10.2%.
• Ipsos polling estimates that RN will win between 230 and 280 seats after the second round but they need 289 for a majority. NFP is headed for 125-165 and Ensemble 70-100. Currently it appears that there will be a hung parliament but new elections cannot be held for at least a year.
• Any candidate with more than 12.5% of the vote can stand in the second round. But both the left and Ensemble are calling for its third place candidates to withdraw, to improve the chances of the second place to beat a RN candidate.
• President Macron will choose the next PM and he does not have to pick someone from the party with the most seats but to ignore them would be difficult if it has a parliamentary majority. He also has the option to choose a technocrat as PM, which may be an easier working relationship as Macron’s term doesn’t end until 2027. He will maintain considerable influence over foreign policy.
• Voter turnout was its highest since 1997 at 65.8%.