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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ITALY
The three main parties set to form the centre-right coalition ahead of the 25 September general election are benefiting from a lack of cohesion in the centre and on the left of Italian politics according to opinion polls.
- The nationalist Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia, FdI), the populist League (Lega) and the centre-right Forza Italia (FI) are running with a combined level of polling support around 44-48%. If reflected in the election, this level of support would almost certainty prove enough to deliver majorities for the bloc in both the Chamber of Deputies (reduced to 400 seats in this election from 630 previously) and the Senate (200 members from 315 previously).
- Despite some notable policy differences, the centre-right coalition (sometimes initialised as 'CDX'), has benefited from maintaining unity. The parties of the centre, centre-left and left however have failed to reach agreements that could see them run together.
- Yesterday, anti-establishment populist 5-Star Movement (M5S) leader Giuseppe Conte announced that his party will fight the election alone, refusing to join an electoral pact with the centre-left Democratic Party (PD). At present the PD, which is vying with FdI for top spot in opinion polls, is likely to only be able to rely on the leftist Article One party in a centre-left alliance (usually initialised as 'CSX').
- Following the collapse of the Draghi gov't, the socialist Italian Left and the environmentalist Green Europe announced the formation of the Greens and Left Alliance (AVS) for the election.
- Meanwhile, the centrist parties - former PM Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva (IV), the pro-EU liberal More Europe-Action alliance (+E-A), and former M5S Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio's Together for the Future (IpF) - could run as a separate centrist alliance or team up with the PD. Even if the centrists and centre-left combined their efforts, the overall support would still fall far short of that for the CDX.
Chart 1. Italy General Election Opinion Polling by Potential Electoral Coalitions, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: EMG, Piepoli, SWG, Quorum-YouTrend, Demopolis, Termometro Politico, Euromedia, Tecne, BiDiMedia, Ipsos, MNI.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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