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RIKSBANK: Minutes Support The Sep Rate Path Revision, But Not Much More (1/2)

RIKSBANK

We think the Riksbank September meeting minutes were consistent with 25bp cuts at the November and December meetings this year, in line with the September MPR rate path.

  • While the commentary from Executive Board members clearly leant dovish, this was unsurprising given all members supported the sizeable downward revision made to the rate path in September (see image).
  • A reminder that the rate path contains only a small probability of a 50bp cut at either of the two remaining meetings in 2024, and Governor Thedeen re-iterated in the September press conference that the base case was for 25bp increments.
  • The minutes continued to highlight CPIF ex-energy as the preferred metric to analyse inflation developments, playing down the importance of below-target CPIF inflation (which has been driven by volatile energy prices).

 

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We think the Riksbank September meeting minutes were consistent with 25bp cuts at the November and December meetings this year, in line with the September MPR rate path.

  • While the commentary from Executive Board members clearly leant dovish, this was unsurprising given all members supported the sizeable downward revision made to the rate path in September (see image).
  • A reminder that the rate path contains only a small probability of a 50bp cut at either of the two remaining meetings in 2024, and Governor Thedeen re-iterated in the September press conference that the base case was for 25bp increments.
  • The minutes continued to highlight CPIF ex-energy as the preferred metric to analyse inflation developments, playing down the importance of below-target CPIF inflation (which has been driven by volatile energy prices).