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RIKSBANK: Minutes Support The Sep Rate Path Revision, But Not Much More (1/2)

RIKSBANK
Central Bank NewsCEEMEABullet RiksbankSwedenGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

We think the Riksbank September meeting minutes were consistent with 25bp cuts at the November and December meetings this year, in line with the September MPR rate path.

  • While the commentary from Executive Board members clearly leant dovish, this was unsurprising given all members supported the sizeable downward revision made to the rate path in September (see image).
  • A reminder that the rate path contains only a small probability of a 50bp cut at either of the two remaining meetings in 2024, and Governor Thedeen re-iterated in the September press conference that the base case was for 25bp increments.
  • The minutes continued to highlight CPIF ex-energy as the preferred metric to analyse inflation developments, playing down the importance of below-target CPIF inflation (which has been driven by volatile energy prices).

 

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We think the Riksbank September meeting minutes were consistent with 25bp cuts at the November and December meetings this year, in line with the September MPR rate path.

  • While the commentary from Executive Board members clearly leant dovish, this was unsurprising given all members supported the sizeable downward revision made to the rate path in September (see image).
  • A reminder that the rate path contains only a small probability of a 50bp cut at either of the two remaining meetings in 2024, and Governor Thedeen re-iterated in the September press conference that the base case was for 25bp increments.
  • The minutes continued to highlight CPIF ex-energy as the preferred metric to analyse inflation developments, playing down the importance of below-target CPIF inflation (which has been driven by volatile energy prices).