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Ringgit Slips At Re-Open, Shows Little Reaction To Contractionary M'fing PMI Outturn

MYR

Spot USD/MYR trades +38 pips at MYR4.7303 as we type, with bulls looking for a clearance of Oct 25 high of MYR4.7440 before targeting the all-time high of mYR4.8850. Bears need a dip through Oct 27 low of MYR4.7028 before taking aim at Oct 6 low of MYR4.6270.

  • Palm oil futures firmed Monday following Russia's decision to suspend the Black Sea Grain Initiative which allowed for the safe passage of ships carrying Ukrainian food along a designated route. The prospect of disruption in sunflower oil transports lent support to alternative edible oils, albeit benchmark CPO futures struggled to attack resistance from the descending 100-DMA. Positive updates on Malaysia's exports last month failed facilitate a re-test of that moving average, even as AmSpec data showed a 11.7% M/M increase & Intertek reported a 5.0% M/M rise in shipments. Meanwhile, the nation remains locked in tight competition with top producer Indonesia, which extended its palm oil exports levy waiver for prices below $800/ton through the year-end.
  • Malaysia's S&P Global M'fing PMI fell to 48.7 last month from 49.1 amid deteriorating demand conditions, albeit input cost and output price inflation gauges eased markedly.
  • The upcoming general election continues to dominate front pages, with Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional set to unveil their candidates today. The opposition Pakatan Harapan alliance has already publish the list of its candidates from Peninsular Malaysia.
  • Most analysts expect Bank Negara Malaysia to raise the Overnight Policy Rate by 25bp this week, while a small minority sees an intermittent pause.
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Spot USD/MYR trades +38 pips at MYR4.7303 as we type, with bulls looking for a clearance of Oct 25 high of MYR4.7440 before targeting the all-time high of mYR4.8850. Bears need a dip through Oct 27 low of MYR4.7028 before taking aim at Oct 6 low of MYR4.6270.

  • Palm oil futures firmed Monday following Russia's decision to suspend the Black Sea Grain Initiative which allowed for the safe passage of ships carrying Ukrainian food along a designated route. The prospect of disruption in sunflower oil transports lent support to alternative edible oils, albeit benchmark CPO futures struggled to attack resistance from the descending 100-DMA. Positive updates on Malaysia's exports last month failed facilitate a re-test of that moving average, even as AmSpec data showed a 11.7% M/M increase & Intertek reported a 5.0% M/M rise in shipments. Meanwhile, the nation remains locked in tight competition with top producer Indonesia, which extended its palm oil exports levy waiver for prices below $800/ton through the year-end.
  • Malaysia's S&P Global M'fing PMI fell to 48.7 last month from 49.1 amid deteriorating demand conditions, albeit input cost and output price inflation gauges eased markedly.
  • The upcoming general election continues to dominate front pages, with Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional set to unveil their candidates today. The opposition Pakatan Harapan alliance has already publish the list of its candidates from Peninsular Malaysia.
  • Most analysts expect Bank Negara Malaysia to raise the Overnight Policy Rate by 25bp this week, while a small minority sees an intermittent pause.