Risk Of Further Escalation In Myanmar Violence

The already unstable political situation in Myanmar risks deteriorating further as one of the largest of the country's numerous separatist groups has stated that due to "advances" made by troops from the governing Tatmadaw junta, that they have "no other options left but to confront these serious threats posted by the illegitimate military junta's army in order to defend our territory".

• The statement came from the Karen National Union, whose military wing - the Karen National Liberation Army - is estimated to have a force of 5,000-12,000, and has since 2012 been party to a ceasefire with the Tatmadaw.
• The military coup of 1 February has seen mass protests on the streets of Myanmar, resulting in a brutal crackdown that has seen over 400 protestors killed by security forces.
• An escalation of violence with heavily-armed and entrenched regional and ethnic militias, combined with the ongoing anti-Tatmadaw protest movements could result in Myanmar descending into major domestic violence that risks spilling over into neighbouring India, Bangladesh, China, Laos, and Thailand.
• There is growing pressure on the ASEAN nations to act with regards to the escalating violence in Myanmar (one of the group's member states). The leaders of Singapore and Indonesia have both called for an emergency summit to discuss the crisis. However, without action from the most powerful political and economic external influence on Myanmar - China - there may be little that the ASEAN group can do to improve the situation.

Source: Stratfor, Burma News International