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Risk-Off Back To The Fore

US TSYS SUMMARY

Choppy early trade generated better volumes into the NY open and again into the NY session close as Bonds surged to new session highs.

  • Tsys had extended late overnight highs but reversed the move after ECB ramped up asset purchases by E500B. Risk-off remained underlying theme w/futures climbing back to pre-ECB highs ahead weekly claims -- and pared gains yet again after higher than exp weekly (716K) and continuing (5.757M) jobless claims.
  • Rates settled into a range from midmorning on -- but extended highs into the close as chances of a bipartisan Covid relief bill waned.
  • Session flow included two-way in 5s from various accts, real$ +10s, bank portfolio buying across the curve, pre-auction short sets in 30s.
  • Strong 30Y Auction, after last tailin in Oct: Tsys bounce after strong US Tsy $24B 30Y bond auction (912810SS8) yields 1.665% (1.680% last month) vs. 1.677% WI; w/ 2.48 bid/cover (2.29 prior). Indirects drew 65.87% vs. 61.90% prior, 16.77% directs vs. 16.54%, and 17.36% for dealers vs. 21.56% prior.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 1.2bps at 0.1369%, 5-Yr is down 1.9bps at 0.3845%, 10-Yr is down 2.7bps at 0.9096%, and 30-Yr is down 4.5bps at 1.6396%.
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