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Risk Off or Forced Unwinds Run Course? Stock Rebound Late

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No data Friday -- But StL Fed President did appear on Fox Business interview in the afternoon. Nothing particularly new from Bullard though he did add he does not see a recession occurring this or next year.

  • Bullard said he would leave the "timing" of when to hike rates up to Powell, but sees 50bp hike as a "good plan for now" while "the more we can frontload" hikes, the "better off we'll be." Bullard said he sees economic growth accelerating in the second half of the year to appr 2.5-3.0%, while unemployment will continue to recede.
  • Early focus on headline risk with buying/short cover support possibly tied to China/covid headlines (CHINA PORT CITY TIANJIN STARTS MASS TEST IN FIVE DISTRICTS, Bbg).
  • Decent overall volumes tied to accelerating Jun/Sep Tsy futures rolling, 5s and 10s lead again w/ over 240k and 175k recorded after the bell.
  • Investment-grade corporate credit risk had climbed to new 2Y highs after midday as equity indexes sell-off. Back to March 2021 levels SPX eminis now appr 20% off early Jan high (4778.0) at 3829.00 (-68.75) after breaching key support / bear trigger levels of 3855.00, May 12 low AND 3843.25, the Mar 25 2021 low (cont).
  • Equities staged a robust rebound off lows in late equity trade, not headline driven, more program/technical while offers fade, SPX eminis nearly back to steady at 3897.75.
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No data Friday -- But StL Fed President did appear on Fox Business interview in the afternoon. Nothing particularly new from Bullard though he did add he does not see a recession occurring this or next year.

  • Bullard said he would leave the "timing" of when to hike rates up to Powell, but sees 50bp hike as a "good plan for now" while "the more we can frontload" hikes, the "better off we'll be." Bullard said he sees economic growth accelerating in the second half of the year to appr 2.5-3.0%, while unemployment will continue to recede.
  • Early focus on headline risk with buying/short cover support possibly tied to China/covid headlines (CHINA PORT CITY TIANJIN STARTS MASS TEST IN FIVE DISTRICTS, Bbg).
  • Decent overall volumes tied to accelerating Jun/Sep Tsy futures rolling, 5s and 10s lead again w/ over 240k and 175k recorded after the bell.
  • Investment-grade corporate credit risk had climbed to new 2Y highs after midday as equity indexes sell-off. Back to March 2021 levels SPX eminis now appr 20% off early Jan high (4778.0) at 3829.00 (-68.75) after breaching key support / bear trigger levels of 3855.00, May 12 low AND 3843.25, the Mar 25 2021 low (cont).
  • Equities staged a robust rebound off lows in late equity trade, not headline driven, more program/technical while offers fade, SPX eminis nearly back to steady at 3897.75.