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Free AccessRisk-Off Sends USD/ZAR Back Above its 100dma, SARB Likely to Hike +25bp
- USD/ZAR trades +0.40% higher this morning, tracking early price action in the BBDXY following last night’s hawkish Fed meeting.
- Powell signalled an upcoming hike in March and alluded to plans to significantly reduce the balance sheet – sparking broad-based risk-off.
- UST yields spikes and equities reversed sharply, contributing to notably weaker global risk sentiment today.
- Post-Fed price action should dominate today, alongside the SARB meeting.
- A broad consensus for a +25bp hike has emerged as the SARB continues with its gradual normalization as a late hiker.
- Focus will be on upside inflation revisions and downside growth revisions as exogenous factors continues to drive price dynamics higher.
- The outcome is largely priced in (1x4 FRA-Jiba3m: +30bp), and may see some marginal ZAR weakness following the print – but more attention will be given to inflation projections and forward guidance.
- Large fuel price hikes in Feb do not bode well for the inflation outlook that is expected to peak in Dec-Feb.
- USD/ZAR price action has jumped above the 100dma and remains vulnerable to global risk sentiment and USD strength.
- Intraday Sup1: 15.3015, Sup2: 15.2660, Res1: 15.4435, Res2: 15.5230
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.