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Risk-Off Slams Turkish Markets as Russia Initiates Full-Scale Ukraine Invasion

TURKEY
  • Local & USD rates remain Unch this morning, but are expected to come under notable risk-off pressure following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • Turkey’s direct exposure to oil/gas prices and wheat from Ukraine & Russia leaves it vulnerable to inflation pressures and food shortages as a result.
  • W/w the curve trades +30-44bp higher across the breadth with 2-5Y tenors most offered thus far. Turkey’s 5Y CDS rose +16bp yesterday and is likely to surge higher at the open with 600 & 620 highs coming into focus.

  • USD/TRY trades +2.30% higher on the back of the Russian invasion, breaking through the 14.00 handle where the CBRT & State banks were rumoured to have intervened on Tuesday to defend the currency.
  • TRY remains notably vulnerable to Russian risks due to its wheat and oil/gas exposures as a net importer and the fact that its real yields are the most negative globally at -35%. Next notable levels to the topside are at 14.6264,14.8126 & 15.0543. Support comes in at 13.9032 & 13.8071
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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