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Risk-On Of Sorts Supports Oil

COMMODITIES
  • Crude oil has generally trended higher through the US session, with forward curve backwardation strengthening. It comes with a cheapening in Treasuries and support for high beta FX majors even if equities haven't followed suit ahead of the FOMC's expected 75bp hike on Wednesday.
  • The Biden-Xi call expected within the next week or so is eyed for implications on potential Chinese demand and an unlikely willingness to curb Russian purchases. Nearer-term, Nord Stream gas issues remain heavily in focus, with Gazprom once again set to cut shipments to about 20% of capacity from 7am Moscow on Wednesday claiming maintenance issues.
  • Latest CFTC data meanwhile show managed money net longs have recovered after hitting the lowest levels in 18 months in prior weeks, but bullish bets on Nymex Brent and ICE WTI are still low due to recessionary risks and as high fuel pump prices are impacting demand.
  • WTI is +2.24% at $96.79, moving back closer to resistance at the 20-day EMA of $99.58 in a move against bearish trend conditions. Support is seen at $91.64 (Jul 15 low).
  • Brent is +1.88% at $105.14 as it moves back closer to the 50-day EMA of $107.21 with further resistance just higher at $107.61 (Jul 19 high).
  • Gold is -0.6% at $1717.24, pushing back against what had been seen as a corrective bounce. Support is seen at $1681.0 (Jul 21 low).
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  • Crude oil has generally trended higher through the US session, with forward curve backwardation strengthening. It comes with a cheapening in Treasuries and support for high beta FX majors even if equities haven't followed suit ahead of the FOMC's expected 75bp hike on Wednesday.
  • The Biden-Xi call expected within the next week or so is eyed for implications on potential Chinese demand and an unlikely willingness to curb Russian purchases. Nearer-term, Nord Stream gas issues remain heavily in focus, with Gazprom once again set to cut shipments to about 20% of capacity from 7am Moscow on Wednesday claiming maintenance issues.
  • Latest CFTC data meanwhile show managed money net longs have recovered after hitting the lowest levels in 18 months in prior weeks, but bullish bets on Nymex Brent and ICE WTI are still low due to recessionary risks and as high fuel pump prices are impacting demand.
  • WTI is +2.24% at $96.79, moving back closer to resistance at the 20-day EMA of $99.58 in a move against bearish trend conditions. Support is seen at $91.64 (Jul 15 low).
  • Brent is +1.88% at $105.14 as it moves back closer to the 50-day EMA of $107.21 with further resistance just higher at $107.61 (Jul 19 high).
  • Gold is -0.6% at $1717.24, pushing back against what had been seen as a corrective bounce. Support is seen at $1681.0 (Jul 21 low).