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Risk-On Tone Builds Despite Friday Headline Data Risk

US TSYS
  • Risk-on tone continued to gain momentum late Thursday, Treasuries back to mid-April levels (TYM4 108-10, +6.5), curves bull steepening (2s10s +2.785 at -30.611) in the aftermath of Wednesday's steady FOMC dovish (at least not hawkish) hold.
  • Despite the upcoming data risk, stocks continue to extend session highs ahead of Friday's April employment data (not to mention likely lower liquidity with Japan closed for extended holiday Friday and Monday, as well as South Korea, UK and Ireland on Monday.
  • Rates shrugged off this morning's higher than expected Unit Labor Costs (4.7% vs. 4.0% est, prior down-revised to 0.0% from 0.4%) and Nonfarm Productivity miss (0.3% vs. 0.5% est, prior up-revised to 3.5%).
  • Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims slightly lower than expected (208k vs. 211k est, 207k prior up-revised to 208k) and Continuing Claims (1.774M vs. 1.790M est, 1.781M prior down-revised to 1.774M). Trade Balance (-$69.4B vs. -$69.7B est).
  • Projected rate cut pricing gained traction vs. late Wednesday levels: June 2024 at -15% vs. -10% earlier w/ cumulative rate cut -3.8bp at 5.298%, July'24 at -24bp vs. -22% earlier w/ cumulative at -9.8bp at 5.238%, Sep'24 cumulative -19.7bp (-17.3bp earlier), Nov'24 cumulative -27.6bp (-24bp earlier).
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