FRANCE
Eligible candidates face a deadline of 1800CET (1200ET, 1700BST) to formally declare whether they intend to run in the 7 July second round legislative elections. This comes as the so-called 'republican front' of centrist and left-wing parties seek to minimise gains for the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) by reducing the number of tripartite run-offs that could split the vote and allow the RN to win a majority.
- According to Le Monde, as of 0850BST, a total of 191 third/fourth-placed candidates have announced their withdrawal. Of these, 123 are from the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, while 66 are from the centrist presidential camp (Ensemble).
- This leaves 118 seats where three parties will still contest the vote, and three where four parties will seek election.
Chart 1. Second Round Contests by Number of Candidates
Source: Le Monde. N.b. 'Avant desistements' - before withdrawals, 'Apres desistements'-after withdrawals. Duels = two-party contests, triangular = three-party contests, quadrangular = four-party contests.
- While the NFP and Ensemble are political rivals, the 'republican front' appears to be working at least in part in attempting to concentrate the anti-RN vote. Betting markets see this coming through as well. Data from Polymarket gives the RN a 21% implied probability of winning an overall majority. This is down from a peak of 66%, and indeed stands at a lower chance than had been afforded to the party in the week leading up to the first round.
Chart 2. Implied Probability of RN Winning an Overall Majority, %
Source: Polymarket
- RN parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen appeared to reiterate the stance of party president Jordan Bardella that the RN would only form a majority gov't, saying “It is evident that we cannot accept to go to government if we cannot act,...We wish to govern,”. Le Pen also claimed she would remain president of the RN caucus in the National Assembly no matter the outcome.
366 words