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Robust Q4 GDP Kicks off EZ GDP Round

SPAIN DATA
MNI (London)

SPAIN Q4 FLASH GDP +0.2% Q/Q (FCST +0.1%); Q3 +0.2%r Q/Q (PREV +0.1%)

SPAIN Q4 FLASH GDP +2.7% Y/Y (FCST +2.2%); Q3 +4.8%r Y/Y (PREV +4.4%)

  • Spanish flash GDP for Q4 grew +0.2% q/q, 0.1pp above expectations, holding pace with Q3 and implying a winter recession has likley been avoided.
  • On the year, the Spanish economy advanced by +2.7%, slowing from +4.8% y/y in Q3.
  • As such, Spain continues to generate confidence for eurozone growth outlooks, adding to evidence of the bloc having experienced a more shallow contraction than initially expected at the back end of 2022. France, Germany, Italy and the Eurozone aggregate are all due Tuesday (Jan 31)
  • Yet the -1.8% q/q slide in household consumption highlights continuing concerns regarding demand.
  • Upwards contributions came from a solid +4.3% q/q boost from agriculture alongside a -4.2% q/q decline in imports led by lower energy imports.
  • Revised previous results are largely due to changes in the revision process. The Spanish Statistics Institute flagged that Q4 provisional data is based on substantially less information than regular quarterly flash estimates.

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