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RPT: MNI INTERVIEW: Philly Fed: Recovery Stalled, Demand -20%

By Jean Yung
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Philadelphia's tepid recovery has stalled out in recent
weeks, not long after the economy re-opened and new Covid-19 cases surged across
the U.S., analysts at the region's Federal Reserve Bank told MNI.  
     The district's first-time jobless claims have settled in at double the
level around the Great Recession, and the share of firms reporting demand down
60% or worse has increased.
     "As long as the virus is loose and there's no vaccine we will continue to
see disruptions," Philadelphia Fed regional analyst Paul Flora said in an
interview. "Most of the concerns about the uncertainty remain." 
     Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has often remarked the
post-crisis recovery had been slow to reach many pockets of his district, which
comprises eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. Philadelphia
remains the poorest of the nation's 10 largest cities while Camden, New Jersey,
was labeled the poorest town in America as recently as 2012.  
     Initial jobless claims for the region "haven't really budged" since early
June and are likely to take some time to drift lower, Flora said. Some firms
have recalled workers but many continue to issue layoffs. "I expect it to bounce
around a little bit at this level, short of having more shutdowns." 
     --BUDGET CUTS
     New claims under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program supporting
independent contractors and gig workers slowed at the end of May but have
started to grow again, he noted. 
     "State governments are going through a budget crisis and making cuts all
over," Flora said. That also hurts arts groups and cultural institutions that
rely on government grants. "There will be layoffs coming."  
     Firms reported demand bottoming out at around -45% in early April compared
to before the pandemic took hold, according to a weekly regional business
survey. While demand had been steadily improving, it only recovered to about
-20% as of early July and signs of further progress are less clear. 
     "Firms were starting to see positive effects on sales and general demand as
the region began to reopen, but it's been a bit choppy in recent weeks," Fed
bank analyst Elif Sen said. "Firms are commenting on the added uncertainty in
the economy, especially with the spike in cases in other parts of the country,
but with more caution in our region too." 
     --FACTORIES
     Manufacturers have seen more improvement in demand, reporting that orders
were down just 11% relative to early in the year. Most factories are finding it
easier to socially distance, Sen said. 
     Service firms are still reporting sales down 23% with a growing number of
respondents stating their demand is still -60% or worse. "It makes sense
considering how the virus is affecting the economy. Consumer-facing business
have more points of contact," Sen said.
     In the most recent survey last week, 52% of businesses are still reporting
declines in demand.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MMUFE$,M$U$$$,MT$$$$]
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com

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