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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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RUB Buoyed by Firm Oil Markets, Hawkish CBR & De-Dollaristaion Push
- USD/RUB opens mostly flat, having traded sideways in yesterday's session despite broad USD strength on robust jobs data.
- RUB outperformed peers ZAR & TRY yesterday, buoyed by bullish momentum in oil markets (now >$70/bbl) on an upgraded demand outlook and signs of further de-dollarisation to cushion Russia against possible US sanctions – belying possible concerns about the upcoming Putin-Biden Summit (16 June).
- Domestically, we see a raft of data coming out this afternoon – including a large uptick in retail sales to 31.5%, adding weight to the CBR's assertions of a robust demand-driven recovery.
- Despite Nabiullina saying to was too soon to call its decision next Friday, MPC members alluded to 25-50bp of hikes in the pipeline and a cautious mindset.
- Given the CBR's projections for a rise in CPI towards 5.7-5.9% and more sustained price pressure in the summer before abating in the back end of the year, the CBR may look to go for the more aggressive approach to decisively anchor expectations and add downside pressure on prices.
- 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads still pricing in 81bp of hikes today after pulling back from 89bp yesterday.
- Nevertheless, a hawkish CBR should continue to support RUB in the coming sessions.
- Intraday Sup1: 73.2003, Sup2: 73.0263, Res1: 73.3652, Res2: 73.5483
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.