Free Trial

RUB Fails to Capitalise on +11.21% W/W Upside in Brent as Taper Talk Keeps EM On the Backfoot

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB gaps lower at the open, playing catch-up to a weaker BBDXY and gains in oil markets overnight.
  • USD/RUB saw a sharp move higher in yesterday's session as Fed Hawks Kaplan and Bullard called for an expedited taper timeline – rising to 74.50 before being fully pared in this morning's open.
  • Price action managed to close below the 200dma as the cross continues to bounce between there and the 50dma below.
  • Oil markets gained further this morning (Brent +1.44%) as oil companies warned about near-term supply disruptions with a potential hurricane forecast to hit the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Brent currently trades +11.21% w/w, but has failed to translate into RUB strength vs the USD as Markets trade choppily into Jackson Hole.
  • Today's focus will be on whether Powell follows Kaplan & Bullard's expedited taper comments, but the broad expectation is that he will keep his cards close to his chest at this meeting.
  • Nevertheless, scope for intraday volatility remains high. USD/RUB trades -0.42% w/w, despite markets becoming more constructive on RUB & OFZ fundamentals.
  • The cross should move in line with global risk sentiment today. Intraday Sup1: 73.9435, Sup2: 73.7458, Res1: 74.1011, Res2: 74.2486
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.