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Free AccessRUB Feels The Pinch as Oil Slides Further Below $80/bbl
- USD/RUB trades +0.70% higher today, with weakness in oil markets combined with a firmer USD dragging the cross higher. Signs of renewed lockdowns in Europe sparked broad risk aversion this morning across EM FX and bolstered concerns of demand destruction in oil markets going into the winter period
- Nevertheless, RUB remains among the few brightspots in the EM universe set against a firmer USD backdrop as markets price in an expedited Fed tightening cycle in 2022.
- Robust fundamentals, strong terms of trade and expectations for ~150bp in hikes into 1Q22 remain core reasons for JPM's overweight rating on RUB in 2022 – highlighting EUR/RUB & ZAR/RUB shorts as potential outperformers.
- USD/RUB has moved through the 73.50 handle with 73.9435 & 74.1011 the next near-term levels to the topside followed by major resistance at 74.4799 ((26 Aug high).
- Price action has moved above the 200dma at 75.5283, which has been quite well defended in recent sessions. Markets will be looking for a close above to take the next leg higher.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.