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- RUB opens firmer this morning, having been CEMEA's worst performing currency as two-way risks from weaker oil markets and broad-based risk-off surrounding the spread of the Delta variant hit the currency.
- Oil has recovered somewhat after falling ~6% yesterday to below $70/bbl after OPEC+ struck an agreement to expand production going forward.
- USD/RUB found sellers, however around the 74.8061 mark, just shy of July highs just above 75.00.
- Confirmation of US-Russia strategic stability talks at the end of the month (July 28) is a positive development for relations, with ties coming off a low base.
- S&P recently noted that a reduction of geopolitical volatility was a key driver for a potential upgrade, so markets will watch this closely.
- Beyond this, markets will beginning to price in a more hawkish CBR meeting in Friday with the market split between a 75 & 100bp hike as overshooting pressures in CPI become more acute.
- This should see some RUB demand creep in this week, with the sell-side looking to fade moves in USD/RUB towards 75.00.
- Intraday Sup1: 74.2486, Sup2: 74.0828, Res1: 74.0861, Res2: 75.0158