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RUB Grinds Higher Amid Risk-On; Markets Eye Lavrov-Blinken Talks

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.39% lower this morning on the back of early selling pressure in the BBDXY.
  • The cross continued to grind lower in yesterday’s session with no material change in the geopolitical status quo combined with USD weakness resulting in a -0.58% move lower.
  • Attention will be on the Lavrov-Blinken call today where Russia may provide some preliminary feedback on US/NATO written responses to Russia’s security proposals.
  • Russia’s tone in recent days has been firm, but more tilted towards dialogue and a measured response to US counter-proposals, while the US, NATO & UK have continued preparing pre-emptive sanctions packages and reiterating threats.
  • Russia has also been more vocal about there being no threat of war, similar to comments from Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials late last week.
  • Pathways to cooperation remain in missile inspections and parameters on military drills, but whether Russia is willing to drop its core proposals for non-expansion eastwards and NATO accession for Ukraine remain to be seen.
  • Signs of improved dialogue will likely be RUB positive, but more threats of Russian military drills or an insistence on its core demands will likely be met with RUB weakness.
  • Intraday Sup1: 76.8878, Sup2: 76.537, Sup3: 76.2114, Res1: 77.4994, Res2: 77.9248
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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